Airbus Global Services Forecast 2026-2045: a long-term industry outlook

Airbus forecasts that demand for aviation services will more than double between 2026 and 2045, exceeding US$420 billion in value. Driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8%, the sector will play a critical role in supporting a global fleet expected to expand to 45,550 aircraft by 2045. Over the same period, annual passenger traffic is projected to double, reaching 10 billion travellers worldwide.To sustain this growth, the industry will require more than 2.44 million additional skilled professionals, including 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew members.

Across every segment of the services market, digital technologies and enhanced connectivity are becoming increasingly essential. These solutions enable airlines to boost operational efficiency, minimise disruptions such as delays and cancellations, improve maintenance responsiveness and deliver the real-time connectivity passengers expect for a seamless travel experience.

Airbus’ GSF outlines six key services segments:

• Off-Wing Maintenance (2045: US$217 billion, +3.7% CAGR) – Doubling in value driven by an increasing number of shop visits due to aging and growing global fleet. Material supply is significant reflecting demand for parts support and repair.
• Maintenance Operations Support (2045: US$104 billion, +4.3% CAGR) – The addition of this new cluster includes inventory provision on time and on quality and engineering support to ensure continued airworthiness and aircraft reliability.
• On-Wing Maintenance (2045: US$36 billion, +2.8% CAGR) – Covering light inspections to heavy checks and growing in line with the overall growing global fleet.
• Digital & Connectivity (2045: US$27 billion, +5.3% CAGR) – The fastest-growing market, this is expected to triple over the next two decades.
• Modifications & Upgrades (2045: US$21 billion, +2.6% CAGR) – Upgrades of older aircraft through cabin retrofits and modern technology integration. 
• Training (2045: US$17 billion, +3.1% CAGR) – Addressing a massive new workforce requirement, the industry must intensify efforts to attract and train new talent.

Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP Customer Services Commercial Aircraft at Airbus commented: "As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready. Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle. By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernisation, and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety and long-term operational excellence.”

Over the next two decades, Europe & CIS, North America and China are expected to remain the largest aviation services markets by total demand, while Asia, encompassing Asia-Pacific, China and South Asia, is forecast to record the fastest growth rates worldwide.

The Airbus Global Services Forecast (GSF) takes an aircraft-agnostic approach, focusing on passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighter aircraft capable of carrying payloads exceeding 10 tonnes.