The eVTOL Goldfever

In advance, one thing is for sure and let there not be any doubt, eVTOL is going to happen and it will be coming. Operational? In some cases, but not all, fairly soon. In other cases, the ‘soon’ is still open-ended.  

Yet, there are currently assumptions and speculations all over. Throwing around development numbers that go in the billions, which creates a phenomenon comparable to a gold rush. And every opportunist wants to be part of it. Hundreds of eVTOL concepts. Gold rushes were typically marked by a general buoyant feeling of a "free-for-all" in income mobility, in which any single pioneer with a vision might become abundantly wealthy. 

When there is a publicity hype, a story about a funky rhinoceros in a disco makes great headlines, lets reader’s jaws on the floor, and brings up a pulse several beats. Contrary to the story about the slow dancer who moves graciously and will not trip over his own feet. In a publicity hype, people hear what they like to hear and disregard the rest.

The upcoming Le Bourget Airshow in Paris, named “the meeting place on Earth for professionals from Heaven”, may provide some indicators of who is who, and who is able to show something tangible with demonstrations. When there is no prototype and no flight-testing performance, then all concept figures and renderings presented are just assumptions and speculations and in worst case scenario, they may go as far as being a bunch of poppycock. Though there may be intelligent guessing, no doubt, but it will still need evidence. Consider something fictional until there is confirmed performance beyond reasonable doubt. One must be cautioned to remain confined to facts.

There are many things to be considered. eVTOL Rules and regulations need to be established. The question may be as simple as what comes first, the chicken or the egg. Will rules become guidelines for developers, or will developers provide food for thought for regulators. Will there be eVTOL simulators and simulator training requirements?

Food for thought? What happens if an eVTOL with four rotor-blades, one at each corner, disfunctions and loses power at one of them? What will be the balancing act? And when it happens with two? eVTOLs are shown to fly at low altitudes over metropolitan areas. What if there is a disfunction and it cannot make it to an appropriate landing area? They are shown to fly point to point over high-rises in metro setting. What if one crashes on top of a building high-up? Who and how to come to the rescue and recovery. 

If a front tire of a car goes flat, one can stop and park on the side of the road. Exchange with a spare tire is possible when one is on solid ground. There are also road service providers. And the eVTOL air taxi? 

How will the insurance industry view the developments? Being certified by an authority may not be enough if there is no actual operation track record over a certain time period yet. Insurers are risk adverse and only take calculated risks based on facts. The premiums will be set accordingly and there will be conditions in fine lettering in the policy.

At the Le Bourget Airshow in Paris, ‘Big Brothers’ will be watching! They will monitor what may be considered for integration in their own concept by their own engineers, or corrections to be made. They may network and make approaches. They may strike deals on what may be beneficial to them. ‘Big Brothers’ are in a better position than ‘Small Brothers’ in such matters. Regardless of a gold fever they remain focused, down to earth yes, but not immediately becoming overly emotional about a vane of gold in a mine. Let others sweat doing the digging.  

Investors will also be watching. What are the serious ones considering?  They have high risk tolerance levels. They do not invest in assets that exceed their risk-taking capacity, as they are aware that such may drive irrational decisions. They remain “actively passive”, meaning that they actively investigate investment opportunities and spend significant time evaluating them. They ask questions since such is better than regretting or getting locked into a poor investment. They are inquisitive, and make sure they gain clarity on all the exposed and hidden issues, be it fees, exit charges, lock in periods, risks, alternatives, premature termination options, or anything else there is to know.  

Serious investors decide after solid research and rational judgment. They differentiate between “speculation” and “investment” avoiding the first and putting emphasis on the latter. Last but not least, investors as well as the “Big Brothers” exercise common sense beyond the hype. The proof will be in the eVTOL pudding.