Avolon issued its annual outlook paper for 2022 titled ‘Rise Above’. Co-authored by Jim Morrison, Head of Portfolio Management, and Rosemarie O’Leary, Head of Counterparty Risk, the paper reviews the key trends in the aviation industry for airlines, manufacturers, and lessors, identifying themes that will shape the year ahead and setting out Avolon’s ‘Fearless Forecasts’ for 2022.
Jim Morrison, Head of Portfolio Management commented: “Aviation’s recovery unfolded in 2021 as anticipated, with vaccines offering a springboard for the easing of government restrictions and re-openings of economies around the world. This allowed many of us to pass an important milestone, boarding our first plane in a post-pandemic world. It is clear from the re-opening that the importance of air travel to society, and the global economy, remains undiminished.
Aviation’s resilience was demonstrated again in 2021, with airline operating losses halving to $54 billion as airlines positioned themselves to capitalize on the pent-up demand evident in the market. Looking ahead, the strong economic growth forecast for 2022 will drive a further recovery in demand for air travel. While we are confident in recovery, it will be a gradual and uneven recovery that will vary region-by-region. In 2022, a strong recovery in international air traffic will follow the domestic air travel rebound of 2021, bouncing back to 70% of 2019-levels by year-end.”
Rosemarie O’Leary, Head of Counterparty Risk commented: “Aircraft lessors will continue to be an integral part of the recovery, supporting airlines as they seek to restore their balance sheets, re-fleet, and grow. As airlines begin deleveraging and transitioning to asset-light business models, the lessor share of the commercial fleet will grow as they fund new deliveries. Beyond the recovery, environmental considerations will remain central to the aviation agenda for the period ahead. The aviation sector continues to focus on reducing emissions and committing to decarbonization. Solutions to support further decarbonization, such as sustainable aviation fuels, are progressing but policies must be structured to ensure that adoption is economically viable. Emission-free flight is also on the horizon. Aerospace innovation is accelerating with the development of electric powered aircraft which provide a glimpse into the sustainable future of flight.”
2022 ‘Fearless Forecasts’
2022’s seven forecasts are set out below and the full paper is available at:https://www.avolon.aero/newsroom-and-thoughts
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